signpost: BAFTA awards feb 13

How will the film that wins the BAFTA affect our predictions?

Nominees:
Bridge of Spies
The Revenant
The Big Short
Spotlight
Carol*

To calculate the LR it could be as easy as downloading the best picture data for both the BAFTA's and the Oscars and counting:

LR for the film that wins the BAFTA:
Numerator: (# instances a film won both BAFTA best picture AND Oscars Best Picture)/(years)
Denominator: (# instances a film WON BAFTA but DID NOT WIN Oscars)/(years)

LR for a film that does not win the BAFTA:
Numerator: (# instances a film DID NOT win BAFTA but DID win Oscars)/(years)
Denominator: (# instances a film DID NOT win BAFTA AND DID win Oscars)/(years)

does that make sense? I'm not sure if each term should be divided by years or not...